Bull Bear Plays 9-26-2017
What I’m Watching (LT)
$EQT – Seaport Global Securities upgraded from neutral to buy, and increased price target from $57 to $79
$RH – Deutsche Bank upgraded from hold to buy, and increased price target from $80 to $84
$HIMX – Roth Capital increased price target from $10 to $12
$ICPT – RBC Capital Markets increased price target from $200 to $244
$SNX – Loop Capital increased price target from $140 to $150 & Needham increased PT from $135 to $145
$HEES – BofA/Merril initiates with a buy rating, and a price target of $33
$Cake – Wedbush downgraded from outperform to neutral, and reduced price target from $52 to $44
$HABT – Wedbush downgraded from outperform to neutral, and reduced price target from $19 to $14
$SHAK – Wedbush downgraded from outperform to neutral, and reduced price target from $40 to $36
$AXON – Chardan Capital Markets reduced price target from $8 to $3
$QEP – Stifel reduced price target from $26 to $23
$RGC – The Benchmark Company reduced price target from $24 to $19
*Note, a bearish outlook doesn’t necessarily mean I’m considering a short position, I may be looking for it to bottom out before going long.
What I’m Trading
$ES_F – I remain neutral on this beast. CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions went from 188K last week, down to 101.3K, a blow to bulls, and a win for bears. However, the above noted CFTC bearish outlook can end up being moot, as in this trap ’em game, you don’t know what’s going to happen with $ES_F, but you should be ready for most set-ups the last 10 years or so have given us; including the changing of directions multiple times throughout the trading day. That’s what I’ve based my algo on.
$ES_F Ranges Are Begging People To Sit On Sidelines
I’ve worked very hard over the past couple of years to identify and codify days that will most probably end up sideways, based on 10 years of backtests. Thus on many flat days, like today, my aglo takes no trades at all. No matter how many years you have done this, there are certain days where $ES_F just leaves you frustrated. How can I explain this frustration… Let’s see, it’s like going to a club after spending months at the gym, making sure your face is free of blemishes, laying out to cook in the sun so you can have a tan, getting your teeth whitened, washing your car, wearing the best clothes, polishing your shoes, making sure your facial hair game is spot on, making sure your haircut is perfect, only to have almost no one show up at the club! Oh how I dread days like this. The chart below explains my “trap everybody zone.” Now that I got that off my chest, hope springs eternal; may tomorrow be a great trading day!
About Raffi Sosikian
Passion for the markets. Bores wife constantly with market talk. Long term value investor. Trader of only one instrument – Spoo (E-mini S&P 500 futures). 20 years experience. Coder. MBA. Now offering accredited investors his $ES_F trading service based solely on performance ($0 management fees). Can only take on a maximum of 15 clients, with a combined maximum of $25Mil under management. Get in touch for details and to talk.