Bull Bear Plays 9-27-2017

What I’m Watching (LT)



$KORS – Canaccord Genuity upgraded from hold to buy, with a PT raise of $43 to $58
$JD – Wells Fargo initiated with an outperform rating, and a PT of $50
$NFLX – Wells Fargo initiated with an outperform rating, and a PT of $230
$VSLR – Guggenheim initiated with a buy rating, and a PT of $5
$BIDU – Wells Fargo initiated with an outperform rating, and a PT of $290


$AMZN – Wells Fargo dropped the PT from $1,400 to $951.20 (note the note below!)
$AXON – Robert W. Baird downgraded from outperform to neutral, with a PT drop of $29 to $6
$SCG –  Lakestreet downgraded from buy to hold, with a PT drop of $40 to $31
$CATM –  Williams Capital Group dropped the PT from $70 to $50

*Note, a bearish outlook doesn’t necessarily mean I’m considering a short position, I may be looking for it to bottom out before going long.

Neutral – What I’m Trading

$ES_F – I remain neutral on this beast. CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions went from 188K last week, down to 101.3K, a blow to bulls, and a win for bears. However, the above noted CFTC bearish outlook can end up being moot, as in this trap ’em game, you don’t know what’s going to happen with $ES_F, but you should be ready for most set-ups the last 10 years or so have given us; including the changing of directions multiple times throughout the trading day. That’s what I’ve based my algo on.

$ES_F Finally Gave Us Some Actionable Volatility 

I noted yesterday that $ES_F had been trading sideways and I was hoping for some opportunity to trade today, well I got lucky:-) I had a trade relatively late in the day, but it had a nice run until the towards the end of the day where nervous bulls took profits. And I certainly don’t blame them for being nervous; this fickle trading environment has made lots of experienced traders quite nervous about any directional bet they make.

One of the reasons I spent so much time working on my algo is because I wanted to remove all of my emotions and hunches from trading. The script knows no fear, shows no hesitation, and with each entry it has ready hundreds of set-ups that when triggered it would immediately exit, and potentially reverse the position if a whole set of other rules are triggered. Moreover, every entry and exit is based on 10 years of backtested data. That is the best I can do, and with all of that code in place (almost 65,000 lines), I have a slightly higher than a 78% win rate over the past 10 years.

Once in a while I read someone post they have a 95% win rate, and within a few minutes of digging it almost always turns out they were testing the last 90 days or some other short look-back days like that. In any event, check out the chart of today’s action. Wishing everyone a great trading day tomorrow!

About Raffi Sosikian

Passion for the markets. Bores wife constantly with market talk. Long term value investor. Trader of only one instrument – Spoo (E-mini S&P 500 futures). 20 years experience. Coder. MBA. Now offering private funds/qualified purchasers his $ES_F trading service based solely on performance ($0 management fees). 



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