Bull Bear Plays 9-28-2017

What I’m Watching¬†

 

Bullish

$HIMX – Lake Street upgraded from hold to buy, and increased price target from $8.5 to $13
$AMGN – Mizugo increased price target from $183 to $198
$BGNE – Maxim Group increased price target from $77 to $120
$PANW – Dougherty & Company increased price target from $165 to $170
$VLO – Cowen increased price target from $70 to $90
$MNK – Goldman initiated with a buy rating, and a price target of $55

 

Bearish*

$ENDP – Goldman initiated with a sell rating, and a price target of $7
$DXCM – Wedbush decreased the price target from $85 to $76
$ENDP – Goldman initiated with a sell rating, and a price target of $7

 

*Note, a bearish outlook doesn’t necessarily mean I’m considering a short position, I may be looking for it to bottom out before going long.

Neutral – What I’m Trading

$ES_F – I remain neutral on this beast. CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions went from 188K last week, down to 101.3K, a blow to bulls, and a win for bears. However, the above noted CFTC bearish outlook can end up being moot, as in this trap ’em game, you don’t know what’s going to happen with $ES_F, but you should be ready for most set-ups the last 10 years or so have given us; including the changing of directions multiple times throughout the trading day. That’s what I’ve based my algo on.

$ES_F Had Some Volatility Though Both Sides Remained Subdued

A nine point range today. I had a couple of trades, one long, and the other short. Both were small wins. Well the first trade was a super tiny itty bitty win, as one of my coded exits fired off a bit too soon. As soon as it did, at first glance on the chart I knew I erroneously had parameters in my code that required the low price of the current bar to be lower than X number of bars before it (and a bunch of other rules I won’t publicly share), when I meant to code the closing price of the bar should be lower than X number of bars before it.

Once in a while, tiny oversights like this happen to everyone. I don’t care if you have a top gun team of Citadel coders and traders working on your script, they too are going to make mistakes like that; reason being if during backtests you had BOTH the low price the closing price of the bar lower than X bars before it, the mistake noted above wouldn’t show. No worries, I made the quick adjustment, ran the backtests, and all is now well with that exit. I would have made another whopping one handle on my long trade if I the intended exit were to fire off, as opposed to the one that did, but my short trade would have made less. Like I noted above, the net difference would have been a handle. For someone with the type of personality that I have, it’s not the money or opportunity cost in this case, but the fact that I let something slip. Nitpicking over 65,000 lines of code isn’t easy, but I thought I had it all QC’ed. Anyway, onto tomorrow, may it be a profitable and productive trading day.

As for the actual results (shown below) my long and short trade combined netted a whopping 1.5 handles gain today. Look, they can’t all be home runs. I wish they were, but that’s not what the market offers us. My average win is about 6.5 handles per trade, so today’s results are comparatively bad, but this is the fruit the market is giving for us to pick. We do the best we can with the cards that we’re dealt; that’s all we can do!

 

About Raffi Sosikian

Passion for the markets. Bores wife constantly with market talk. Long term value investor. Trader (algo) of only one instrument РSpoo (E-mini S&P 500 futures). Higher than a 78% win rate over the last 10 years of backtested data. Average win is 3.45 times the average loss. 20 years experience. Coder. MBA. Now offering private funds/qualified purchasers his $ES_F trading service based solely on performance ($0 management fees). 

 

 

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